Global Progress on Paris Agreement Targets and Climate Action – Part I (2015-2022)

The Paris Agreement set ambitious goals to limit global warming to well below 2°C (preferably 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels. This report reviews global progress toward those targets, focusing on emission trends, clean energy transitions, climate finance, policy actions by major emitters, challenges, and key scientific assessments. It draws on the latest data and reports to assess where the world stands and what gaps remain.

Emission Reductions and Target Trajectories

Global Emissions Trends: Despite pandemic-era declines, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have rebounded to record highs. In 2022, total GHG emissions reached 57.4 GtCO₂-equivalent, exceeding pre-COVID levels​unep.org. Preliminary data indicate 2023 set a new record as well, with emissions about 1.3% higher than 2022​carbonbrief.org. This rise is outpacing the average growth rate of the past decade​carbonbrief.org. The world has already warmed ~1.15°C above 1850–1900 averages as of 2022​wmo.int, and the World Meteorological Organization warns of a 66% chance we will exceed 1.5°C in at least one of the next five years (albeit temporarily)​wmo.int.

Paris-Aligned Pathways: According to the IPCC, limiting warming to 1.5°C requires a massive cut in emissions this decade. Global GHG emissions must peak by 2025 and decline about 43% by 2030 (from 2019 levels), reaching net-zero CO₂ around 2050​wri.org​unfccc.int. For a 2°C limit, emissions need to fall roughly 28% by 2030​unep.org. In stark contrast, under current policies, 2030 emissions are projected to increase slightly (around +3%) relative to 2015 levels​unep.org, rather than drop. In absolute terms, there is a rapidly narrowing window – by 2030 global emissions must be brought down to roughly 30–33 GtCO₂e/year to align with 1.5°C, versus ~54 GtCO₂e/year expected under present trajectories.

The Emissions “Gap”: This discrepancy between required and projected emissions is highlighted in UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report. While there has been some progress (2030 emissions projections have improved from a +16% increase forecast in 2015 to about +3% now, thanks to new policies), the world is still far off-track​unep.org. To achieve Paris goals, 2030 emissions must fall by about 28% for a 2°C pathway and 42% for 1.5°C​unep.org – a gap of many gigatons. Current pledges under the Paris Agreement (countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs) are insufficient: if all unconditional NDCs are implemented, warming is estimated around 2.9°C by 2100, or about 2.5°C if conditional commitments and financing are also met​unep.org. In other words, there is a “massive gap between rhetoric and reality” requiring a “quantum leap in ambition” in the next round of pledges​carbonbrief.org​carbonbrief.org. Many G20 countries are not even on track to meet their existing NDCs – current policies of major economies are projected to overshoot their 2030 targets by a collective 1 GtCO₂e​carbonbrief.org.

Key Emission Metrics: Table 1 provides a snapshot of current emissions and goals.

Metric	Value / Status
Annual GHG Emissions (2022)	57.4 GtCO₂e (record high)​unep.org
Required 2030 Emissions for 1.5°C	≈ 43% below 2019 levels​unfccc.int (≈33 GtCO₂e/year)
Warming in 2100 (if current NDCs met)	2.5–2.9°C above pre-industrial​unep.org
Global Temperature Rise (2022)	~1.15°C above pre-industrial​wmo.int
Countries with Net-Zero Pledges	107 countries (≈82% of GHG emissions)​un.org

As Table 1 shows, the implementation gap is large. The first “Global Stocktake” of the Paris Agreement (concluded at COP28 in 2023) echoed these findings, warning that global emissions are not aligned with Paris pathways and urging far stronger action before 2030​unfccc.int​unfccc.int. To keep 1.5°C within reach, global emissions in 2035 need to be cut 60% below 2019 levels​unfccc.int – a trajectory currently nowhere in sight. The IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report bluntly stated that without “immediate and deep” emissions reductions across all sectors, the Paris goals will not be met​ipcc.ch.

Renewable Energy Adoption and Transition Efforts

Transitioning to renewable energy and improving energy efficiency are central to meeting climate targets. In recent years, there has been significant progress in scaling up clean energy:

• Record Renewable Installations: 2023 saw an unprecedented boom in renewable power. An estimated 536 GW of new renewable capacity (solar, wind, etc.) was added globally in 2023 – the largest annual increase ever​ren21.net. This brought renewables to about 30% of worldwide electricity generation​ren21.net. Investment in renewable power and fuels hit $623 billion in 2023​ren21.net, even amidst inflation and supply chain challenges. Solar and wind dominate new capacity additions; in fact, renewables accounted for the vast majority of power sector growth last year.
• Growth vs. Needed Pace: Despite this progress, the expansion needs to accelerate to meet Paris-aligned goals. At COP28, countries collectively agreed to triple global renewable power capacity by 2030 (from 2020 levels) as part of keeping 1.5°C alive. Achieving this means reaching roughly 11,000 GW of renewables by 2030​irena.org. Current growth rates, while record-breaking at ~14% in 2023, are just shy of what’s needed – about 16.4% per year compound growth​wri.org​wri.org. A joint report by IRENA and the COP28 Presidency warned that “across almost all metrics… the world has fallen further behind” on the 2030 triple-renewables goal (solar PV being a notable exception with exponential growth)​wri.org.
• Energy Efficiency and Electrification: Alongside renewables, the goal was to double the rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030. Here, progress is lagging badly – current efficiency gains are around 1% per year, far below the ~4% annual improvement needed​wri.org. The IEA reports that efficiency improvement remained “a mere 1%” in 2023, unchanged from recent years​wri.org. This shortfall means higher energy demand and more difficult emissions cuts. On a positive note, electric vehicle (EV) adoption has surged – EVs surpassed 10% of global car sales in 2022, and continued growth in transport electrification will be crucial to decarbonize the sector​wri.org.
• Phase-out of Coal and Fossil Power: Some nations are making strides in phasing down coal. Notably, the UK closed its last coal power plant in 2024, ending over 140 years of coal-fired electricity​wri.org. Dozens of countries have joined alliances to end unabated coal, and COP28’s declaration included accelerating the “phase-down of unabated coal power”. However, coal still generates over one-third of global electricity as of 2022​wri.org, and coal use increased in some regions amid recent energy security concerns. The continued expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure is undermining progress: between late 2023 and late 2024, governments issued new oil and gas exploration licenses that could lock in an extra 2 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions over their lifetime​wri.org. UNEP’s analysis finds that no major fossil fuel-producing country has committed to fully phase out fossil extraction yet​wri.org, underscoring the tension between short-term energy needs and long-term climate goals.

In summary, renewable energy is growing rapidly and now supplies a meaningful share of power globally, helping bend the emissions curve. But to meet Paris targets, this clean energy revolution must accelerate even further. The agreed goal of tripling renewables by 2030 will require roughly 1 TW of new capacity annually (double the current annual additions)​ren21.net, alongside dramatic gains in efficiency and storage deployment. The coming years are pivotal for scaling up wind, solar, storage and electrification infrastructure at an unprecedented rate.

Financial Commitments and Climate Finance

Mobilizing finance is critical to support mitigation and adaptation efforts, especially in developing countries. The Paris Agreement included a goal for wealthy nations to provide $100 billion per year by 2020 in climate finance. Progress toward and beyond this target is mixed:

• $100B Goal – Finally Met (Late): For years, developed countries fell short of the $100B annual commitment. Climate finance flows hit about $83.3B in 2020​parlementenwetenschap.nl and remained below the target through 2021. However, new data show that in 2022 developed nations “materially surpassed” the goal for the first time, delivering $115.9 billion in climate finance to developing countries​devcommittee.org. This figure – which includes both public funding and private capital mobilized by public interventions – represents a long-awaited milestone, albeit two years past the 2020 deadline. (Notably, about 60% of 2022 climate finance was for mitigation projects, with ~40% for adaptation, reflecting an ongoing imbalance​devcommittee.org.)
• Climate Finance Gaps: While $100B/year is now being met, it pales in comparison to needs. The UN Secretary-General and independent experts have called for trillions in annual climate investment. Estimates suggest developing countries alone require on the order of $1–2 trillion per year in the coming decades to finance clean energy and resilience. Adaptation finance in particular is severely lacking – adaptation needs are 10–18 times larger than current finance flows​ndcpartnership.org. The UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2023 finds developing nations may need ~$215–387B per year for adaptation by 2030, yet public adaptation finance in 2021 was only $21B, even declining 15% from the prior year​ndcpartnership.org​ndcpartnership.org. This leaves an adaptation finance gap estimated at $200–366B per year​ndcpartnership.org, which is widening rather than closing. Similarly, funding for Loss and Damage – addressing irreversible climate harms – is only just beginning (a new Loss & Damage Fund was agreed at COP27, but is not yet capitalized at scale).
• New Finance Pledges: In recognition of these gaps, countries are negotiating a “New Collective Quantified Goal” (NCQG) on climate finance to take effect from 2025 onward. Early indications point to a substantially higher goal. For instance, at COP29 (2024), parties discussed tripling the finance goal to $300B per year by 2035, and mobilizing $1.3 trillion annually (public and private combined) by 2035​unfccc.int​unfccc.int. International Energy Agency data show overall global clean energy investment (public + private) is already around $2 trillion in 2024​unfccc.int, but the challenge is directing enough of this investment to emerging economies and the areas of greatest need.
• Private Finance and Initiatives: The private sector’s role is growing but needs policy support. Coalitions like the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) formed in 2021 with over $130 trillion in assets pledged to net-zero alignment​wri.org. However, momentum has sputtered due to political pushback and lack of standards. Many banks’ and investors’ net-zero plans are not yet credible or on track​wri.org​wri.org. In some cases, institutions have withdrawn: e.g. Vanguard (the world’s 2nd largest asset manager) quit the net-zero asset managers alliance in late 2022 amid U.S. political pressure against ESG investing​wri.org. Several major insurers similarly left the Net-Zero Insurance Alliance in 2023. This retrenchment shows that without clear government policies and safeguards, private climate finance commitments can waver. On the other hand, green investment is rising in certain areas (for example, investments in battery and EV manufacturing jumped in 2023​ren21.net).

In summary, climate finance is inching upward and the symbolic $100B barrier has been crossed, but funding remains far below what’s needed to achieve Paris targets and protect vulnerable communities. Bridging this gap will require scaled-up public finance, leveraging far more private capital, and reforms to global financial institutions. Upcoming climate summits are expected to solidify higher collective finance goals and innovative mechanisms (debt relief swaps, climate banks, etc.) to funnel resources to mitigation, adaptation, and loss & damage priorities.

Policy Developments and Major National Actions

National policies and targets—especially in major economies—are crucial for translating Paris goals into action. Since 2015, a growing number of countries have adopted stronger climate targets (mid-century net-zero pledges and enhanced 2030 NDCs) and implemented new climate laws or investments. Below are highlights from key emitters and blocs:

• United States: After rejoining the Paris Agreement in 2021, the U.S. set a 2030 NDC of 50–52% reduction in GHG emissions below 2005 levels. In August 2022, it passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a landmark climate policy investing ~$369 billion in clean energy, electric vehicles, and efficiency. The IRA is projected to cut U.S. CO₂ emissions by about 35–43% below 2005 by 2030 (versus ~27% under prior policy)​epa.gov, bringing the U.S. much closer to its NDC (though additional actions are needed to fully meet the 50% goal). The power sector is expected to see the largest gains – with IRA measures, electricity-sector emissions could fall nearly 50–80% below 2005 levels by 2030​epa.gov. The U.S. has also implemented regulations to cut methane leaks in oil/gas and boost vehicle fuel economy. However, federal action still faces political headwinds, and some states are contesting climate policies. Long-term, the U.S. aims for net-zero emissions by 2050.
• European Union: The EU has significantly raised its ambition through the European Climate Law, which binds the bloc to net-zero emissions by 2050 and a minimum 55% reduction by 2030 (vs 1990)​climate.ec.europa.eu. This “Fit for 55” package includes an expanded Emissions Trading System, stricter CO₂ standards for cars (effectively phasing out new combustion engine car sales by 2035), increased renewable energy targets, and efforts like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (to curb carbon leakage from imports). The EU’s emissions peaked in the 1990s and have been steadily declining (~30% below 1990 as of 2020). Despite the 2022 energy crisis (due to the Ukraine war), the EU doubled down on clean energy via its REPowerEU plan, accelerating wind and solar deployment to replace Russian gas. By 2022, the EU had cut coal use significantly (coal now provides <15% of EU electricity) and is targeting a rapid scale-up of renewables to 45% of energy by 2030. The EU met its previous 2020 climate goal and is largely on track for the 55% by 2030 goal, though continued policy strengthening is underway (including a 2040 target under discussion).
• China: China, the world’s largest emitter, has pledged to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Its current 2030 targets include lowering carbon intensity by >65% from 2005 and increasing non-fossil energy to 25% of primary consumption. Notably, China is investing heavily in renewables and electric transport. It added a staggering 356 GW of new wind and solar capacity in 2023, allowing it to achieve its 2030 renewable capacity target (1,200 GW) six years early​reuters.com​reuters.com. China now accounts for roughly half of global renewable power deployment. It is also the leading electric vehicle market. However, China continues to build new coal power plants for grid stability and energy security. In 2024, it started construction on 94.5 GW of coal power – the highest in a decade – even as it retires older coal units​reuters.com. This dual trend (renewables surging alongside continued coal expansion) reflects China’s balancing of economic growth and climate goals. Beijing has stated it will begin phasing down coal use after 2025 and aims to strictly limit coal capacity, but provincial approvals have surged in the near term. Successful early peaking of emissions (potentially before 2030) will depend on how quickly clean energy can displace coal in China’s energy mix. China’s emissions growth has slowed in recent years, and some analyses project its emissions could plateau by the mid-2020s with current policies​newclimate.org.
• India: India submitted updated targets in 2022 (following Prime Minister Modi’s “Panchamrit” pledges). India commits to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030 (from 2005) and to achieve about 50% of its electric power capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030​pib.gov.in. While India’s absolute emissions will likely grow in the 2020s (to meet development needs), it plans a massive expansion of renewables – targeting 500 GW of non-fossil power capacity by 2030. Already, 42% of India’s installed electricity capacity is non-fossil (renewables + nuclear/hydro) as of 2022​pib.gov.in, indicating progress toward the 50% goal. Solar power in particular has boomed, with India running one of the world’s largest solar park programs. India’s long-term strategy aims for net-zero emissions by 2070. Key initiatives include nationwide energy efficiency programs, electrification (e.g. scaling up electric mobility), and possibly a future carbon market mechanism. Challenges remain, as coal still provides ~70% of India’s electricity and energy demand is rising rapidly – but the coal fleet is relatively young. The government is pursuing a parallel approach of ramping renewables (to eventually out-compete coal) and enhancing coal plant efficiency in the interim. India also launched the “Lifestyle for Environment (LIFE)” campaign to promote sustainable consumer choices as part of its climate action​pib.gov.in.
• Other Major Emitters: Most other top emitters have likewise strengthened targets:
  • Japan adopted a net-zero 2050 goal and raised its 2030 target to a 46% GHG cut below 2013 levels, with a focus on renewables, energy efficiency, and hydrogen fuel.
  • Brazil re-committed to ending Amazon deforestation by 2030 and reaching climate neutrality by 2050, reversing prior rollbacks in forest protection.
  • Canada set a 2050 net-zero law and aims to cut emissions 40–45% below 2005 by 2030, implementing measures like a national carbon price and clean electricity standard.
  • UK has one of the most ambitious 2030 targets (−68% vs 1990) and was a leader in coal phase-out and climate finance, though recent policy shifts delayed some targets (e.g. pushing a ban on new petrol car sales from 2030 to 2035). The UK remains committed to net-zero 2050 in law.
  • Russia and Saudi Arabia, while pledging net-zero by 2060, have made limited policy changes and are expanding fossil fuel production, highlighting a gap between long-term pledges and near-term action in some petro-states.

Notably, the net-zero movement has become mainstream: as of mid-2024, over 100 countries (covering 80+% of global emissions) have announced plans for net-zero emissions around mid-century​un.org. This is a drastic shift from 2015. However, the credibility and implementation of these pledges vary widely. According to climate trackers, few countries have concrete policies sufficient to achieve their net-zero goal; most need to backfill with stronger short-term actions. The Global Stocktake urged countries to update 2035 targets by 2025 that align with the net-zero trajectories​carbonbrief.org. Looking ahead, success will depend on turning these announced targets into laws, regulations, and tangible emission cuts on the ground.

Setbacks, Challenges, and Gaps

Despite areas of progress, the world faces serious setbacks and persistent challenges in achieving Paris Agreement goals:

• Insufficient Near-Term Action: A core issue is the implementation gap – nations’ policies today are not enough to meet even their own pledged targets, let alone the Paris temperature limits. The UNEP Emissions Gap 2024 report noted that progress in cutting emissions “has plateaued” since around COP26​carbonbrief.org. Few major emitters are on track for their 2030 goals, and some have backtracked. For example, global CO₂ emissions are still rising when they should be rapidly falling. Every year of delay makes the required future cuts steeper.
• Fossil Fuel Dependence and Energy Crises: The ongoing reliance on fossil fuels remains a formidable obstacle. The recent global energy crisis (2021–2023) saw some countries increase coal and gas use in the short term to curb high energy prices and replace Russian gas. This led to new investments in fossil fuel infrastructure that could lock-in emissions. In 2023, governments worldwide spent about $600 billion on fossil fuel subsidies – a record high apart from the 2022 crisis, and well above subsidies for clean energy​ren21.net. These subsidies undercut the price signal needed to transition to renewables, though many countries have pledged to phase out inefficient fossil subsidies. Additionally, industry lobbying for continued oil, gas, and coal exploitation remains strong. In places, fossil fuel interests have capitalized on energy security concerns to advocate for more drilling or delayed coal retirements, complicating climate efforts.
• Policy Reversals and Political Pushback: Achieving climate goals requires consistent, long-term policy commitment, which can be vulnerable to political shifts. We have seen setbacks such as:
  • Some governments softening climate policies due to economic or political pressure (e.g. delaying climate regulations, or the rise of climate-skeptic political factions).
  • In the U.S., legal challenges and a polarized Congress threaten to slow the Biden Administration’s climate regulations and international finance. Opposition to ESG investing led certain financial alliances to lose members, as noted with Vanguard and others retreating from GFANZ under political pressure​wri.org.
  • In the UK, as mentioned, certain future measures were postponed for political palatability, sparking concern among businesses seeking regulatory certainty.
  • Global climate negotiations also hit stumbling blocks: for instance, consensus on phasing out all fossil fuels has been elusive. COP27 and COP28 saw over 80 countries support a call to phase-out unabated fossil fuels, yet the final texts ended up reiterating “phase down coal” and boosting renewables, without an explicit oil and gas phase-out timeline due to resistance from some producer states.
• Equity and Support Gaps: Developing nations face challenges in advancing their climate actions without sufficient support. Climate finance shortfalls (as discussed) mean many low-income countries cannot invest in necessary renewable infrastructure or adaptation. The failure of rich countries to meet finance pledges until recently eroded trust. Additionally, technology transfer and capacity-building have lagged behind what was promised, creating a gap between what developing countries can pledge versus implement. This also ties into adaptation and resilience gaps – many vulnerable nations are not receiving the help needed to cope with worsening floods, droughts, and storms. The global goal on adaptation remains vague, and actual adaptation implementation is slow, raising risks of mounting losses and damages.
• Climate Impacts Intensifying: Ironically, as efforts falter, the real-world impacts of climate change are accelerating, which can divert resources and political attention. In recent years, the world has witnessed an onslaught of extreme weather events – from record heatwaves and wildfires across Europe, North America, and Asia, to catastrophic flooding in Pakistan and Nigeria, and historic droughts in East Africa and China. Scientific assessments have increasingly been able to attribute the increased severity of many of these events to human-induced climate change​unfccc.int​unfccc.int. The human and economic toll of such disasters is rising, especially for the most vulnerable. This creates a vicious cycle: greater climate impacts demand more emergency response and adaptation spending, potentially leaving less bandwidth for proactive emissions reduction – unless climate action is massively scaled up.
• Technical and Systemic Challenges: Reaching net-zero will require overcoming significant technical hurdles: scaling up grid infrastructure to handle intermittent renewables, developing affordable energy storage and smart grids, deploying new technologies like green hydrogen at scale, and perhaps carbon removal for residual emissions. The “systems transformations” needed (in energy, transport, industry, land-use) are unparalleled​unfccc.int. There are concerns about supply chains (for example, critical minerals for batteries and renewables), workforce training for green jobs, and ensuring a just transition for affected workers and communities (e.g. coal miners, oil and gas workers). If not managed well, these could become socio-economic bottlenecks or trigger pushback. The global stocktake emphasized that just and equitable transitions are essential to maintain public support and fairness​unfccc.int.

In essence, the challenges are daunting: the world must reverse the inertia of a century-old fossil-fueled system in a matter of years, against headwinds of politics, economics, and inertia. Yet, these challenges also highlight why decisive action is urgent – each setback underscores the need for stronger international cooperation, innovation, and leadership to close the gaps.

Key Reports and Scientific Assessments

Multiple authoritative reports in the past two years have underscored the state of climate change and the urgency of action. Here we highlight a few key assessments and their findings on climate trends:

• IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) – 2021/2023: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its most comprehensive assessment, in three parts (2021–2022) and a Synthesis Report in March 2023. The IPCC confirmed that human-caused warming is unequivocal, already ~1.1°C, and affecting every region. It warned that some impacts are already irreversible – for example, some low-lying island nations and ecosystems are hitting limits to adaptation at the current 1.1°C warming​wri.org​wri.org. The IPCC detailed how risks escalate with each fraction of a degree: beyond 1.5°C, we face high risks to food and water security, and beyond 2°C, potentially catastrophic impacts (e.g. much more frequent crop failures, extreme heat rendering some regions practically unliveable)​wri.org. On mitigation, the IPCC provided the clearest benchmarks yet for Paris alignment: as noted, global emissions must halve by 2030 and reach net zero by mid-century for 1.5°C​wri.org. It emphasized that all sectors need transformations and that there is no room for new unabated fossil fuel infrastructure if we are to stay within the remaining carbon budget. The IPCC reports also highlighted the co-benefits of action (clean air, jobs) and the dangers of overshooting 1.5°C even temporarily. The Synthesis Report’s takeaway was that we have the knowledge and tools to limit warming, but lack time and political will – this decade is make-or-break.
• UNEP Emissions Gap Reports (2022 & 2023): These annual reports track the disparity between pledges and performance. The 2022 Emissions Gap Report (titled “The Closing Window”) found that updated NDCs since COP26 had only marginal impact on projected emissions, and that there is “no credible pathway to 1.5°C” with current pledges – limiting warming to 1.5°C now requires an emergency-like effort. The 2023 Emissions Gap Report (titled “Broken Record”) reiterated that GHG emissions hit a new high and that current commitments put us on a ~2.5–2.9°C trajectory​unep.org. It noted some progress (as mentioned, projected 2030 emissions have come down slightly with new policies), but called for “no more blah blah blah” (in essence, less talk and more action). UNEP stressed that the world must cut emissions at an unprecedented rate starting immediately to bridge the gap – requiring measures like a rapid phase-out of coal, a massive renewables scale-up, and tackling methane emissions. It also explored Carbon Dioxide Removal as a partial tool, while cautioning that CDR cannot compensate for delayed mitigation.
• WMO State of the Global Climate & United in Science (2022–2023): The World Meteorological Organization’s reports provide the latest observations of the climate system. The State of Climate 2022 (WMO) reported that the past 8 years were the warmest on record globally (with 2016 and 2020 as the top two). It documented accelerating sea level rise (global mean sea level reached a new high, rising ~4.5 mm/year in 2013–2022, double the 1990s rate) and record-low ice extents in some seasons. The WMO also highlighted exceptional extremes: e.g. a European heatwave in 2022 saw the UK exceed 40°C for the first time, and multi-year drought in the Horn of Africa pushed millions into food insecurity. The United in Science 2023 report (a synthesis by WMO and partner agencies) delivered a stark message that “we are heading in the wrong direction.” It noted GHG concentrations in the atmosphere are at their highest in 2 million years (CO₂ averaging ~419 ppm in 2022)​unfccc.int, and rising. It also warned of the rising probability of temporarily overshooting 1.5°C in the near term​wmo.int, consistent with the subsequent WMO update we discussed. These scientific findings underscore the urgent need for early warning systems and adaptation, as even current levels of warming are causing unprecedented weather extremes​unfccc.int.
• Global Stocktake Synthesis Report (2023): As part of the Paris Agreement’s first Global Stocktake, the UNFCCC released a synthesis of inputs assessing collective progress. The key findings, published September 2023, were sobering: “Paris has driven near-universal action, but much more is needed on all fronts.” It found that no sector is on track for the required transformations – emissions reductions, adaptation planning, and finance are all lagging. Specifically, it re-affirmed the necessity of the 43% emission cut by 2030 and highlighted that “global emissions are not in line” with any modeled path to the temperature goal​unfccc.int. It explicitly called for phasing out unabated fossil fuels and scaling up renewables as key steps to get on track​unfccc.int – notably, this was one of the first official UN texts to mention moving away from fossil fuels so directly. The GST report also emphasized equity and support, noting developed nations must both cut faster and finance more to allow developing countries to follow a low-carbon path​unep.org​unep.org. This stocktake laid the groundwork for the political phase at COP28, where countries adopted a declaration to “rapidly transform systems” and agreed to revisit their NDCs by 2025 with new 2035 targets.
• Other Notable Assessments: The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its World Energy Outlook 2023 indicated that, for the first time, global demand for each of the fossil fuels shows a peak or plateau in their projections – signaling a pivot, albeit not yet a Paris-aligned decline. The IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap 2023 update also suggested that if all announced clean energy pledges are met, warming could be held to ~1.7°C, but emphasized implementation as the Achilles’ heel. Additionally, the Climate Action Tracker and Climate Watch provide regular updates on country-level progress. For example, Climate Action Tracker noted in late 2023 that the global “warming outlook” has stagnated at about 2.7°C with current policies, as improvements from new policies have been offset by the reality of delayed action​newclimate.org. The Global Carbon Budget 2023 (by the Global Carbon Project) reported that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels might have reached an all-time high, but growth is very slow (~1%/yr), potentially indicating an approaching peak if renewable deployment continues to accelerate.

These reports collectively send a clear signal: the science of climate change is unequivocal about the risks of inaction, and the data on current trends show we are not yet doing enough. However, they also outline solutions. The consistent theme is that immediate, bold measures – across mitigation, adaptation, and finance – could still course-correct the trajectory. Each year’s delay closes off options, but every fraction of a degree avoided matters for the future.

Conclusion and Outlook

In the global effort to meet the Paris Agreement targets, progress to date is falling short of what is needed, but not for lack of solutions or knowledge. Emissions are at record highs when they should be trending down; renewable energy is booming but must grow even faster; climate finance is increasing but remains a fraction of the required scale. Nearly all countries are now engaged in climate action and have submitted plans, yet collectively these plans are insufficient and implementation is too slow.

The next few years will be critical. The first Global Stocktake has made plain the gaps, and it calls for governments to significantly ratchet up their 2030 and 2035 commitments by 2025. Encouragingly, some positive signs exist: clean technology costs have plummeted, public support for climate action is high in many nations, and major economies like the EU and U.S. have enacted new climate-focused investments. If these momentum points can be leveraged – through stronger policies (e.g. carbon pricing, regulations to phase out coal and gasoline cars), international cooperation (such as climate finance, technology sharing, and perhaps a global renewable energy target), and societal shifts (sustainable lifestyles, corporate net-zero pledges turning into concrete action) – there is still a chance to bend the curve downward in line with Paris goals.

However, the window to keep 1.5°C alive is rapidly closing. Every fraction of delayed action raises the risks of more severe climate disruption. As the UN Secretary-General bluntly summarized: we are moving in the wrong direction, and we need to course-correct now. The Paris Agreement’s framework of “ambition cycles” is entering a new phase, and the world’s eyes will be on the upcoming COPs (COP30 in 2025 and beyond) for how countries respond to the stocktake. Ultimately, fulfilling the Paris Agreement’s promise will require translating the wealth of plans and promises into urgent, concerted action – a wholesale transformation toward a net-zero, climate-resilient future in the coming decades. The challenge is immense, but the imperative and the benefits of success – a stable climate, sustainable development, and protected communities – make it one that humanity cannot afford to miss.