Global Progress on Paris Agreement Targets and Climate Action – Part II (2023-Feb 2025)

February 26, 2025

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This report provides a comprehensive update on global progress towards Paris Agreement climate targets from 2023 through early 2025, building on the previous assessment. It examines emission trends, clean energy transitions, climate finance developments, policy actions by major emitters, ongoing challenges, and key scientific findings during this period.

Emission Reductions and Target Trajectories

Global Emissions Trends

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continued to rise in 2023 and 2024, albeit at a slower pace than previous years. According to preliminary data from the Global Carbon Project, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reached a new record high of approximately 37.5 billion tonnes in 2023, a 1.1% increase from 2022 levels[1]. This was followed by a marginal 0.5% rise in 2024, bringing the total to about 37.7 billion tonnes[2].

The slight deceleration in emissions growth can be attributed to rapid expansion of renewable energy, improved energy efficiency, and economic headwinds in some regions. However, the continued upward trajectory underscores the immense challenge of aligning with Paris Agreement goals, which require emissions to decline sharply this decade.

Temperature Increase and Projections

The world experienced unprecedented warmth in 2023, with global average temperatures reaching 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)[3]. While this does not signify a permanent breach of the 1.5°C threshold, it serves as a stark warning of how close the planet is to that critical mark.

In early 2024, the WMO reported a greater than 90% chance that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record, surpassing 2023[4]. The organization also projected a 50% likelihood of at least one year between 2024 and 2028 exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for an entire year, not just temporarily[4].

Emissions Gap and Paris-Aligned Pathways

The 2024 UNEP Emissions Gap Report highlighted the widening chasm between current trajectories and Paris-compatible pathways. To have a likely chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, global GHG emissions must fall by 42% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels[5]. However, under current policies, emissions are projected to rise by 3% over the same period[5].

Even if all unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, the world is on track for 2.5-2.9°C of warming by 2100[5]. This “emissions gap” between pledges and a 1.5°C-aligned pathway stands at around 20-23 GtCO2e for 2030[5].

The urgency of the situation was further emphasized in the IPCC’s 2023 Synthesis Report, which stated that global emissions must peak before 2025 to maintain a realistic chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C[6]. With emissions still rising in 2024, this crucial milestone is in danger of being missed.

Renewable Energy Adoption and Transition Efforts

Record-Breaking Clean Energy Growth

The years 2023 and 2024 saw unprecedented growth in renewable energy capacity. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), global renewable power capacity additions reached a record 473 GW in 2023, a 50% increase from 2022[7]. Solar PV led the way with 344 GW of new installations, followed by wind power at 117 GW[7].

In 2024, preliminary data suggest another record-breaking year, with total renewable capacity additions estimated at approximately 550 GW[8]. This surge brings the share of renewables in global electricity generation to about 33% by the end of 2024, up from 30% in 2022[8].

Progress Towards Tripling Renewable Capacity

At COP28 in December 2023, countries collectively agreed to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 from 2022 levels. This translates to a target of about 11,000 GW of installed renewable capacity by the end of the decade[9].

While the growth rates in 2023 and 2024 are encouraging, they still fall short of the pace needed to achieve this goal. IRENA estimates that annual capacity additions must average around 1,000 GW every year from 2024 to 2030 to meet the tripling target[9]. This requires nearly doubling the record-setting pace of 2024 and maintaining it consistently for the rest of the decade.

Energy Efficiency and Electrification

Progress on energy efficiency has shown signs of improvement but remains insufficient. The IEA reports that the rate of global energy intensity improvement – a key measure of efficiency – reached 2.2% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024[10]. While this represents an acceleration from the 2% average of the previous five years, it still falls short of the 4% annual improvement needed to align with Paris goals[10].

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption continued to surge, with global sales reaching 14 million units in 2023 and an estimated 18 million in 2024. This rapid growth means EVs now account for about 18% of total new car sales worldwide, up from 10% in 2022. However, the pace of charging infrastructure deployment is struggling to keep up with vehicle sales in many regions.

Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Efforts

Progress on phasing out fossil fuels, particularly coal, has been mixed. Several countries accelerated coal plant retirements in 2023 and 2024. Notably, Germany closed its last coal-fired power plant six months ahead of schedule in October 2024, joining a growing list of European nations to eliminate coal from their electricity mix.

However, these positive developments were partially offset by continued coal expansion in some Asian countries. China, while leading the world in renewable energy deployment, also approved 106 GW of new coal power capacity in 2023, the highest figure since 2015. This highlights the ongoing tension between energy security concerns and climate goals in rapidly growing economies.

On a more positive note, the global pipeline of planned coal plants continued to shrink. By early 2025, the total capacity of coal plants in pre-construction planning had fallen by 57% since 2015.

Financial Commitments and Climate Finance

Progress on the $100 Billion Goal

Developed countries finally met and exceeded the long-standing goal of mobilizing $100 billion per year in climate finance for developing nations. Official figures for 2023, released in late 2024, show that climate finance flows reached $121.2 billion that year.

While this represents a significant milestone, it comes several years later than the original 2020 target date. Moreover, the composition of this finance has drawn criticism. Approximately 65% was provided as loans rather than grants, and only about 30% was allocated for adaptation projects, falling short of the balanced approach called for in the Paris Agreement.

New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) Negotiations

Negotiations on the post-2025 climate finance goal, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), intensified throughout 2023 and 2024. At COP29 in November 2024, countries agreed on the broad structure of the NCQG, which will include separate targets for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage funding.

While the final figures are still under negotiation, preliminary discussions point to a significantly higher overall goal, potentially in the range of $400-600 billion annually by 2030. This reflects growing recognition of the vast scale of finance needed to support climate action in developing countries.

Private Sector Initiatives and Challenges

The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) continued to expand its membership, reaching over 550 financial institutions with a combined $150 trillion in assets by early 2025. However, the alliance faced growing scrutiny over the credibility of members’ net-zero plans.

In response to these concerns, GFANZ introduced more stringent requirements for transition plans in late 2023. These include mandatory interim targets, restrictions on financing new fossil fuel projects, and enhanced disclosure of financed emissions. Several members left the alliance following these changes, but the majority reaffirmed their commitments.

The sustainable finance market saw continued growth, with global issuance of green, social, and sustainability bonds reaching $1.5 trillion in 2023 and $1.8 trillion in 2024. However, this growth was tempered by concerns over “greenwashing” and the need for more standardized taxonomies and reporting frameworks.

Policy Developments and Major National Actions

United States

The implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) gained momentum in 2023 and 2024, driving significant clean energy investments. By early 2025, the IRA had mobilized over $500 billion in private capital for clean energy projects. Key developments include:

Solar and wind capacity additions nearly doubled in 2024 compared to 2022 levels.
EV sales reached 2.5 million units in 2024, accounting for 15% of new car sales.
Several large-scale green hydrogen projects broke ground, supported by IRA tax credits.

However, political challenges emerged as some states passed laws restricting clean energy development or EV adoption. The 2024 presidential election also created uncertainty about the long-term fate of climate policies.

Despite these headwinds, updated projections suggest the U.S. is on track to reduce emissions by 32-38% below 2005 levels by 2030, an improvement from pre-IRA estimates but still short of its 50-52% NDC target.

European Union

The EU made substantial progress in implementing its “Fit for 55” package of climate policies. Key achievements include:

Finalizing reforms to strengthen the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), including faster annual reductions in emission allowances and the phase-out of free allowances for certain sectors.
Adopting a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which began its transitional phase in October 2023.
Reaching agreement on stricter CO2 emission standards for new cars and vans, effectively banning the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles from 2035.

The EU’s renewable energy growth accelerated, with the share of renewables in electricity generation reaching 44% in 2024, up from 37% in 2021. However, progress was uneven across member states, with some countries struggling to meet their individual targets.

In response to energy security concerns stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU launched the REPowerEU plan to accelerate the clean energy transition. This includes raising the 2030 renewable energy target to 45% of final energy consumption, up from the previous 40% goal.

By early 2025, the EU had reduced its GHG emissions by approximately 34% compared to 1990 levels, keeping it broadly on track for its 55% reduction target by 2030.

China

China’s emissions continued to rise in 2023 and 2024, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. However, the country made significant strides in clean energy deployment:

Renewable energy capacity additions reached unprecedented levels, with over 250 GW of new solar and wind power installed in 2024 alone.
The share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption reached 19% by the end of 2024, up from 16.6% in 2022.
Electric vehicle sales surged, with EVs accounting for 35% of new car sales in 2024.

China released its carbon peaking action plan in late 2023, providing more detailed sectoral targets and measures to achieve its goal of peaking CO2 emissions before 2030. The plan includes accelerated coal phase-down in eastern coastal regions and stricter efficiency standards for industry.

However, concerns persist about China’s continued expansion of coal-fired power capacity. While many older, inefficient plants are being retired, the overall coal fleet is still growing, potentially locking in emissions for decades.

India

India made notable progress on its climate commitments, driven by rapid renewable energy growth:

The country reached its 2030 target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel electricity capacity in late 2024, six years ahead of schedule.
The share of renewables in electricity generation increased to 44% by early 2025, up from 22% in 2022.
India launched its National Hydrogen Mission in 2023, aiming to become a global hub for green hydrogen production.

In a significant policy shift, India announced a new NDC at COP29 in 2024, committing to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 50% by 2030 from 2005 levels, up from its previous 45% target. The country also pledged to achieve 65% of its installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030.

However, India’s absolute emissions are still projected to rise in the coming years as it balances development needs with climate action. The country maintains that its per capita emissions remain far below those of developed nations and continues to call for greater climate finance and technology transfer.

Other Major Emitters

Japan: Accelerated its transition away from coal, with several major utilities announcing plans to fully phase out coal power by 2030. The country also raised its 2030 renewable energy target to 38% of electricity generation, up from the previous 22-24% goal.
Brazil: Under a new administration, Brazil recommitted to ending illegal deforestation in the Amazon by 2030. Deforestation rates fell by 22% in 2023 and a further 30% in 2024, though they remain above the historic lows of the early 2010s.
Canada: Introduced a national Clean Electricity Regulation in 2023, mandating a net-zero electricity grid by 2035. The country also expanded its carbon pricing system and launched a national zero-emission vehicle mandate.
Australia: Following a change in government, Australia significantly strengthened its climate targets. The country legislated a 43% emissions reduction target for 2030 (from 2005 levels) and committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

Setbacks, Challenges, and Gaps

Persistent Implementation Gap

Despite strengthened pledges and some areas of progress, the world continues to face a significant implementation gap. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 warned that current policies put the world on track for 2.7°C of warming by 2100, far above the Paris Agreement goals[5].

This gap is particularly pronounced in the near term. Global emissions are still rising when they need to be falling rapidly to align with a 1.5°C pathway. The failure to peak global emissions by 2025, as called for by the IPCC, means that future reduction efforts will need to be even more dramatic to compensate[6].

Fossil Fuel Lock-In and Stranded Assets

The continued expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure in some regions threatens to lock in emissions for decades to come. Despite the growth of renewables, global fossil fuel consumption reached new highs in 2023 and 2024.

Of particular concern is the ongoing investment in new coal power plants, especially in Asia. The IEA estimates that if all planned coal plants are built and operated for their full lifetimes, they would emit more than 500 billion tonnes of CO2, effectively exhausting the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C.

This creates a growing risk of stranded assets as the world transitions to clean energy. A 2024 study by Carbon Tracker estimated that up to $1.4 trillion in planned fossil fuel infrastructure could become stranded if countries align their policies with a 1.5°C scenario.

Climate Finance Shortfalls

While the $100 billion climate finance goal was finally met in 2023, the overall scale of finance remains far below what is needed. The UNFCCC’s Standing Committee on Finance estimated in 2024 that developing countries will need $5.8-5.9 trillion in the pre-2030 period to implement their NDCs.

Adaptation finance, in particular, continues to fall short. The 2024 Adaptation Gap Report found that annual adaptation costs in developing countries could reach $300 billion by 2030, yet current flows are less than one-tenth of that amount.

The persistent finance gap not only hampers climate action in vulnerable countries but also erodes trust in international climate negotiations. Several developing nations have made their enhanced climate commitments conditional on receiving adequate financial support.

Loss and Damage Challenges

The operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, agreed upon at COP27, has faced significant hurdles. While the fund’s board was established in 2023, disagreements over its funding sources, eligibility criteria, and disbursement mechanisms have slowed progress.

By early 2025, only a handful of countries had made concrete pledges to the fund, totaling less than $1 billion. This falls far short of the estimated annual loss and damage costs, which some studies suggest could reach $290-580 billion in developing countries by 2030.

Policy Inconsistencies and Backsliding

While many countries have strengthened their climate commitments, some have experienced policy backsliding or inconsistencies:

Several countries relaxed environmental regulations or increased fossil fuel subsidies in response to energy price spikes and inflationary pressures in 2023-2024.
Some nations that had previously announced coal phase-out dates pushed back their timelines, citing energy security concerns.
Political shifts in certain countries led to the weakening or reversal of climate policies, highlighting the vulnerability of climate action to electoral cycles.

Technical and Infrastructure Challenges

The rapid scaling of clean energy technologies has exposed infrastructure bottlenecks and technical challenges:

Grid integration issues have led to curtailment of renewable energy in some regions, particularly where transmission infrastructure has not kept pace with generation capacity.
Supply chain constraints for critical minerals used in batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines have caused project delays and cost increases.
The intermittency of wind and solar power has highlighted the need for massive deployment of energy storage and flexibility resources, which are still scaling up.

Key Reports and Scientific Assessments

IPCC Synthesis Report (2023)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Synthesis Report in March 2023, providing a comprehensive overview of the state of climate change. Key findings include:

Human activities have unequivocally caused global warming, with observed increases of 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels as of 2011-2020[6].
Climate change is already affecting every region on Earth, with widespread impacts on ecosystems, human systems, and extreme weather events[6].
Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, including a 43% reduction by 2030 and net zero CO2 emissions by 2050[6].
Every increment of warming increases the risks of long-lasting or irreversible impacts, such as the loss of ecosystems, species extinctions, and sea-level rise[6].

The report emphasized that while the challenges are immense, solutions are available and can be implemented immediately. It called for transformative changes across all sectors of society, highlighting the importance of equity and climate justice in the transition.

Global Stocktake Synthesis Report (2023)

The first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement concluded at COP28 in December 2023. The Synthesis Report, released in September 2023, provided a stark assessment of global progress:

The world is not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C or “well below” 2°C.
While climate action has increased since the Paris Agreement, the pace and scale of implementation are insufficient.
There are significant gaps in mitigation, adaptation, and means of implementation (finance, technology transfer, and capacity building).

The report called for a “quantum leap” in climate action, including:

Accelerating the phase-out of unabated fossil fuels and rapidly scaling up renewable energy.
Enhancing adaptation efforts and increasing resilience, particularly in vulnerable communities.
Significantly scaling up climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building support to developing countries.

WMO State of the Global Climate 2023 and 2024

The World Meteorological Organization’s annual reports provided alarming updates on the state of the climate system:

2023 was confirmed as the warmest year on record, with global mean temperature 1.45°C above the pre-industrial baseline.
Ocean heat content reached record levels in both 2023 and 2024, contributing to accelerating sea-level rise.
Arctic sea ice extent hit new record lows in several months of 2023 and 2024.
Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, floods, and tropical cyclones, caused significant impacts worldwide.

The reports emphasized that climate change is no longer a future threat but a present reality, with impacts accelerating faster than many climate models had projected.

IEA World Energy Outlook 2024

The International Energy Agency’s flagship report, released in October 2024, provided key insights into the global energy transition:

Renewable energy is set to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation worldwide by 2025.
Electric vehicle sales are projected to account for over 60% of car sales by 2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario.
Despite progress in clean energy, global CO2 emissions from the energy sector are still rising, albeit at a slower rate.
Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 requires a tripling of clean energy investment by 2030.

The report highlighted that while the energy transition is gaining momentum, it is not yet happening at the speed or scale required to meet climate goals.

UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2024

Released in November 2024, this report focused on the growing adaptation needs in a warming world:

The adaptation finance gap is widening, with needs in developing countries estimated at $215-387 billion annually by 2030.
Only about 20% of tracked climate finance goes to adaptation, far below the 50% goal set in the Paris Agreement.
While more countries are developing National Adaptation Plans, implementation remains a challenge due to funding constraints and capacity limitations.

The report called for urgent scaling up of adaptation finance and emphasized the importance of nature-based solutions and locally-led adaptation efforts.

Conclusion and Outlook

The period from 2023 to early 2025 has seen a mix of progress and setbacks in global efforts to address climate change. On the positive side, renewable energy deployment has accelerated dramatically, electric vehicle adoption has surged, and many countries have strengthened their climate commitments. The long-awaited $100 billion climate finance goal was finally met, and the first Global Stocktake provided a clear picture of where the world stands in relation to the Paris Agreement goals.

However, these developments have not yet translated into the steep emissions reductions required to limit warming to 1.5°C or even “well below” 2°C. Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, albeit at a slower rate, when they need to be falling rapidly. The implementation gap between pledges and action remains substantial, and climate impacts are intensifying faster than many models had projected.

Looking ahead, the next five years will be critical in determining whether the world can get on track to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Key priorities include:

Accelerating the phase-out of fossil fuels, particularly coal, while rapidly scaling up renewable energy and energy storage.
Dramatically increasing climate finance, especially for adaptation and loss and damage in vulnerable countries.
Addressing infrastructure and technical bottlenecks that are hindering the clean energy transition.
Strengthening policy frameworks to ensure consistent, long-term support for climate action across political cycles.
Enhancing global cooperation on technology transfer, capacity building, and just transition efforts.

The challenge is immense, but the solutions are increasingly available and cost-effective. What is needed now is a dramatic acceleration of implementation across all sectors and regions. The decisions made and actions taken in the coming years will largely determine whether the world can avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change and create a sustainable, resilient future for all.